In my opinion, the biggest obstacle to Ron Paul’s nomination in the Republican primary is his lack of voter awareness. Paul has made some headway in this category through his participation in the Republican debates, but these debates are essentially beauty contests for MSM-approved candidates (of whose number Paul cannot be counted). This week, however, Paul appeared on The Tonight Show With Jay Leno. In two months, we may be looking back at this appearance as a true turning point in Paul’s campaign.
First, Paul got more meaningful face time on national TV than ever before. Paul had about six solid minutes on Leno (if we don’t count the time where Leno is talking or the audience is clapping). To put this into perspective, Paul had more time to talk on Leno than he did at at least one of the recent Republican debates.
Second, Paul was exposed to more viewers than in the debates. According to Wikipedia, The Tonight Show with Jay Leno has a nightly average of 5.7 million viewers. Compare this to the number of viewers for the primary debates, which, according to the Washington Post, has ranged in 2007 from a high of almost 2.9 million viewers down to just over 1.0 million viewers. Paul reached two to five times more viewers on Leno than he did in any of the debates thus far.
Third, Paul truly hit his stride in terms of marrying genuineness with polish and principle with charisma. Though he has done well thus far in the debates, in my opinion he has never been better. It didn’t hurt that, unlike debate moderators, Leno was respectful and asked meaningful questions.
So, to sum it all up, on Jay Leno, as compared to previous debates: Paul had as much time to speak; Paul reached an estimated 2 to 5 (say, 3.5) times as many viewers; and the quality of Paul’s time was (in my sober judgment) 2.3 times higher. Based on my unassailable assumptions and logic, Paul’s Jay Leno appearance was worth approximately 8.05 primary debates. In other words, Paul got more value out of one appearance on nighttime TV than in all of the televised debates thus far put together!
November 3, 2007 at 5:42 pm
It’s great to see a blogger actually analyzing a situation rather than just parrot the news and then vent about it. Thanks!
November 3, 2007 at 5:54 pm
Good analysis. Ron Paul was great on the Tonight show, and so was Leno. The revolution might be televised after all.
November 3, 2007 at 8:54 pm
I didn’t figure Ron’s message would become as popular as it has. The problem though is this – when people do hear him they just get a few seconds. So things like abolish the Fed and IRS scare people – because they don’t get the whole message. That’s the prob – Glenn Beck says Ron is running for mayor of crazy town – that’s the prob.
November 3, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Yes, the Leno appearance was key. I was relieved to see Leno treat Dr. Paul courteously and graciously, and actually let him speak.
I saw him on CNN’s Anderson Cooper last night, he did well there, too, despite the infobabe trying to saddle him with the ‘flaky’ label.
November 4, 2007 at 3:45 pm
[...] Tonight Show with Jay Leno. I had missed it, but The Libertarian Lawyer, luckily, put the video up and published a follow-up post (a good, interesting read, written from the perspective of a Paul supporter). After the [...]
November 4, 2007 at 4:28 pm
Excellent post. Though I’m a GOP member I and by way of Paul I’m starting to understand the liberterian point of view. I must admit some liberterian’s are nuts but then ago so are the neocons. My point is this. I like you site so it’s now on my favs…. I really enjoyed your post and look forward to more paul posts.
November 4, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Good analysis.
IMHO it’s worth more than an ADDITIONAL 8.04 debates.
Debates are good because the viewers tend to be interested voters. But to a large extent it’s the same set of interested voterss, so there’s a big diminshing-returns factor after a couple.
Leno is largely a different audience. So of the 5.7 million, many of them were new eyeballs. (Leno probably got a boost from having Ron Paul on, but most of that will be people who are already aware of him and/or debate watchers.) So it’s like 8.04 or so FIRST debates. B-)
It’s very good that he did well, because (unlike the debates) this is pretty much a one-shot.
November 4, 2007 at 5:40 pm
The same people that think Ron Paul is nuts, are the ones calling for total annihilation of the Mid East.. they want to nuke them back to the stone age and “turn it into a parking lot”. Yeah, defending the Constitution is CRAZY!!
November 4, 2007 at 5:43 pm
The Leno appearance has already helped drive great book sales for Ron Paul. The biggest hurdle right now is overcoming the idea that he can not win. Don’t forget that America loves an underdog.
Ron Paul is certainly a “top tier” candidate. I have been creating a web site to demonstrate just how wrong this “long shot” label is when refering to Ron Paul. While Ron Paul registers low in the national polls, he dominates in the Straw Polls, Debate Polls, Fund Raising, Web Traffic and Grass Roots Networking.
Please visit http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com and decide for yourself.
November 4, 2007 at 6:13 pm
“In my opinion, the biggest obstacle to Ron Paul’s nomination in the Republican primary is his lack of voter awareness.”
Succinctly put; do you agree that there’s a concerted effort to suppress Ron Paul, though, or is it merely a sin of omission?
November 4, 2007 at 6:19 pm
What he needs is a movement to get on more of the late night shows. Conan, Ferguson, Letterman, Charlie Rose etc. I’m not very internet savvy but maybe someone out there could come up with an idea to garner support to get him on more shows. Maybe something along the lines of thisnovmber5th.com to ask the different shows to have him on. I’m sure if they get the idea people are interested then maybe they would ask him to be a guest.
November 4, 2007 at 6:55 pm
There is a huge effort to suppress Ron Paul. Leno’s corporate masters told him to sandbag Paul. He did by introducing him and mentioning he isn’t doing big in the polls. However, Leno was ok during the interview.
November 4, 2007 at 8:16 pm
Ron Paul showed a different side to him than I have ever seen in the past. He was relaxed, accessible, casually political, and gave great answers to Jay Leno’s questions. Ron Paul is quite the Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde. He will go all out at a debate, but is personable and sincere when not confronted.
However, the latter would have been nice for Ron Paul to give a hint of. While I liked this side of him, Ron Paul’s aggressive manner is what makes him the fierce political machine we know of. Jay Leno should have asked a few tough political questions, just to show the audience that Ron Paul means business.
November 4, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Whoa there Bob!
you just described someone I know to a T.
I think Paul was one of the few people who said he would not consider the nuclear option with Iran. How does it look if we were to threaten or even use nukes on a weaker country? It’d be open season on us then.
probably the only reason we didn’t nuke the USSR is because they could fight back.
November 4, 2007 at 8:54 pm
nice study of Dr. Paul situation as far as face time goes. You are 100% right. But funny thing is that his net stats like youtube subscribers or myspace friends anf fundraising did not show the Leno show had any effect. Only book sales went up 100% in 24 hours on Amazon but that could have been due to him just featuring it on the top of the web site for that period. Did the site see any major new traffic or do the Leno viewers not leave the tube to go online?
November 4, 2007 at 9:17 pm
Most commendable. Some of the bad press given to RP supporters is deserved. It is refreshing that you step forward and give credit where credit is due. Leno was entirely respectful without being partisan, and very well prepared with trenchant questions. If we Ron Paul supporters want to be respected we have to be respectable and certainly this essay expresses partisanship without being disrespectful. It’s a commendable example for some of the overly zealous.
November 4, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Ron Paul has some good ideas but unfortunately they are overshadowed by the more frequent wacky ones!
RWD
November 5, 2007 at 12:08 am
rightwingdog, even if some of Ron Paul’s ideas were “wacky” (I disagree), this does not matter because a President Paul would have to work with Congress to get most things accomplished.
November 5, 2007 at 1:59 am
Turning Point in Paul’s Campaign: I don’t think the author – who is certainly well-meaning – has been following the campaign closely. The first, significant, turning point occurred on June 30, in Ames Iowa. The Iowans for Tax Relief held a presidential forum and did not invite Representative Paul. Paul, wisely, held his own event next door and drew a bigger crowd. This was a huge event and it was noticed. Other turning points were the debates; when Ron Paul won every single post-debate poll, to the surprise (and dismay) of Sean Hannity and others. Other turning points were being on The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, and the Newshour with Judy Woodruff. All of these events led to exposure, support and financial help. Yes, The Tonight Show was good, and Leno was the perfect host. But it was one of many significant “turning points.” There will be more. I am hoping a win in New Hampshire will be another. That would be the Best!
November 5, 2007 at 10:39 am
Jay Leno showed some real class in the questions that he asked as well aas treating Ron paul with real respect . on paul rwmarking that “there is a risk I could win” was classic and perfectly timed.
Julius
November 5, 2007 at 12:41 pm
I was in the audience at the Tonight Show and there isn’t much I’d change if I could. The “perfect for you” quip (re: “Anarchy in the U.K.”) I would change. :-/ But, that seemed to be a tongue-in-cheek throwaway line and I don’t think it hurt much. Overall it went quite well and I’m super proud of having been one of the chair-warming trained seals there.
For the record, I think Jay did a very good job and I was only sad I didn’t get a chance to tell him so and shake his hand afterward. The security in there was pretty tight.
November 5, 2007 at 1:40 pm
It’s funny that the Tonight Show and the Daily Show are now my “mainstream media”. Great post!
November 5, 2007 at 1:45 pm
You have a great point, and it’s rather sad … a late-night comedy-based talk show has actually done a better job of presenting a Presidential candidate and his positions than a debate/forum that is designed to do exactly that.
One thing I appreciated about the Values Voter Debate was that everyone had exactly the same kind of time: Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee, the biggest names who attended, had no more but no less time than Alan Keyes or John Cox. Everyone was able to make his case.
But since the “news” networks don’t handle their debates the same way, we don’t see it.
To Klutometis, I think that it’s more of an arrogance-thing. The press has anointed front-runners in each race. It likes the glamorous candidates that it picked. That’s how an almost-1-term Senator is getting so much airtime compared to the veterans of the Democratic primary, and why a couple stuffed suits are leading the GOP race while all of the ideas-based candidates are considered “second-tier.”
November 5, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Yes… and I also really liked the PBS/Tavis Smiley debate for those same reasons (as well as the names that *didn’t* attend!)
November 5, 2007 at 4:02 pm
I have seen number of posts in regards to Ron Paul on Jay Leno. Guess what? It will not make a difference since Ron Paul despite his cult like support and good use of the internet he has no mainstream support.
Many already know on my blog there has been number of posts on Ron Paul. We have fresh one today…
http://shadowdemocracy.wordpress.com/2007/11/05/if-you-had-any-doubts-that-ron-paul-is-a-conspiracy-nut-check-this-out/
November 29, 2007 at 4:52 am
Just watched the Republican debate (11/28/07). How would you rate Ron Paul (numerically as in Leno)?
It seems to me that Paul continues to allow McCain and Guliani to sucker punch him and he has not yet responded effectively. They accuse him of being weak on iraq and weak on protecting the U.S. citizenry from terrorists. He continually responds on his Iraq stance but never talks about what needs to be done to protect the U.S. Does he think simply leaving Iraq will allay the hatred of those who wish to do us harm? I don’t think most citizens feel that is the case and certainly most Republicans don’t. As he said tonight, he is still a Republican.
I am a moderate Republican and can say as much as I like a number of his positions he has done nothing to make me feel comfortable with how Libertarianism copes with reality, especially in the aforementioned area.
As far as the debate, I thought McCain and Guilani were full of demagoguery (we did lose the Vietnam War no matter who was to blame and with no slight to our soldiers) and Guilani is more a street bully than a leader. Thompson was desperate and it showed. I think he is dead. Paul had his chance to disparage our Iraq presence (which may not be mainstream Republican but has a lot of support) while providing comfort that he would protect the U.S. from terrorist threats, but didn’t. Huckabee came across like a star and Romney at least looks presidential. The others are
not going to make it but have some interesting points.
Arkansas Governor Huckabee vs First Lady of Arkansas Clinton. It must be those hot springs!
Unless Ron Paul fills in a lot of gaps i don’t see how he can compete. I think he had a great opportunity tonight and didn’t come through. I still like a lot of his ideas but there remains a reality gap in my mind.